Will the Strait of Hormuz reopen to commercial shipping before July 1, 2026?

This market resolves YES if at least 10 commercial oil tankers transit the Strait of Hormuz in a single day on or before July 1, 2026 as confirmed by tanker tracking data.

Resolution condition: AIS ship-tracking data from MarineTraffic or equivalent service must show 10 or more commercial tankers transiting the strait within a 24-hour period.

Example resolution:

• YES: On June 20, 2026 MarineTraffic logs show 15 tankers transited the strait.
• NO: Through July 1, 2026 no day sees 10+ tanker transits due to continued blockade or war risk.

Context: The Strait of Hormuz has been effectively shut since the US-Iran war began in late February 2026. A tenuous ceasefire is in place. Trump has vowed to restart bombing if Iran does not free the waterway. Oil prices remain around $90/bbl. The UAE left OPEC on May 1 signaling intent to maximize output when the strait reopens.