Will the RBA cut the cash rate by Q4 2026?

Rate Cut chance:35%

Price History

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Market Timeline

May 16, 2026, 10:21 AM
Open Trading
Dec 15, 2026, 6:00 AM
Trading cutoff

Rules Summary

Resolves YES if the RBA reduces the cash rate from 4.35% at any meeting by December 31, 2026.
RBA hiked to 4.35% with three consecutive moves. Markets are debating whether cuts follow later in 2026.
Example: YES - RBA cuts to 4.10% in November 2026. NO - Rate stays at 4.35% all year.