US enters recession by end of 2026

The United States enters an economic recession by December 31, 2026. Resolves YES if either: (1) Two consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth (Q-Q annualized), OR (2) The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) Business Cycle Dating Committee officially declares a recession start date occurring in 2026. Source of truth: Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) quarterly GDP reports and official NBER recession dating announcements (nber.org).